Attention Swarms

If the long-tail is over-time activity, swarm behavior is the initial burst of activity.
Before the holidays I attended the fourth ‘Beta Day’. John Borthwick (@borthwick), the CEO of Betaworks, opened the day with a talk sharing many insights. One of the insights referenced was “flock behavior.” Being able to regard data via bit.ly, he was seeing very clear activity bursts around media consumption. These bursts have emerged everywhere. They are akin to “swam intelligence”
Swarm intelligence (From Wikipedia)
Swarm intelligence (SI) describes the collective behaviour of decentralized, self-organized systems, natural or artificial. The concept is employed in work on artificial intelligence. The expression was introduced by Gerardo Beni and Jing Wang in 1989, in the context of cellular robotic systems.[1]
SI systems are typically made up of a population of simple agents or boids interacting locally with one another and with their environment. The agents follow very simple rules, and although there is no centralized control structure dictating how individual agents should behave, local, and to a certain degree random, interactions between such agents lead to the emergence of “intelligent” global behavior, unknown to the individual agents. Natural examples of SI include ant colonies, bird flocking, animal herding, bacterial growth, and fishschooling.
Media Swarms
Previously, we saw this type of engagement around video consumption. It begins with an initial swarm, followed by the long-tail. On average, video viewership peaks early in a video’s life-cycle as seen in the below example. (via.. TubeMogal) Significantly, 50% of all views occur in the first two weeks, peaking at day three, which constitutes 11% of all views.

Television, in convergence with social media, displays a similar swarm pattern around new episodes. (09-’10 graph below)

These activity windows or ’swarm’ behaviors crystallized across many services over the last year. Tools, like Trendrr, now provide new visibility, measurement, and analysis into this behavioral shift.
Attention Density
Through data, we can visualize changes to better understand what is and has taken place in a rapidly changing digital landscape.
The data of activity streams allows us to see the swarm. As media offerings emerge and gain resonance, the attention to the media increases. This is known as the “epidemiology of action” or how certain behaviors spread through a population.
Albert-Laszlo Barabasi’s book Bursts: The Hidden Pattern Behind Everything We Do has data driven insights on how bursts in our own behavior is a key component that drives us to participate is the swarm.
I like the lens Barabasi puts on this area: bursts in behavior are affected by how we prioritize our thoughts. His insights came the same way most of ours have: though the analysis of previously unavailable data we are seeing new exciting patterns.
Data Driven Insights – Welcome to the Swarm
Bit.ly, tracking links and media shared, shows clear activity windows. Barabasi through access to LBS data sets discusses Bursts. Via Trendrr, we have seen the same patterns around media consumption, conversation levels, news, blogging, and LBS information.
We are a swarming species.
New Consumption Windows
If these are patterns are not random and are indeed predictable what are the media cycles and how do the new windows of consumption unfold?
In film it is the difference between the current industry model of windowing: big screen (first window), rental market/DVD (second window), to small screen TV (third window). These are controlled-swarm distribution models VS alternate-swarm distribution activity happening naturally in the wild.
Consider the current uncontrolled releases via BitTorrent ignoring studio windowing boundaries and competing on a different field of a attention. Understanding these natural windows of activity and their patterns can help frame more realistic studio windows for the future.
The studios current train of thought is “We need to maintain a “balanced marketplace” as the digital giants continue to grow.”
I disagree. The studios need to embrace the long road down and back up to compete with digital giants ASAP. The notion of control is an illusion.
Flash Transactions in the Swarm
We are living in a rapidly changing digital landscape where terms like social, real-time, apps, ‘checking-in’ move from new lexicon to the fabric of everyday life. This happened in just less than two years. Systemic changes in human behavior are happening fast.
This shift is significant and systemic as it scales past media to locations, transactions, events and distribution methods. Flash physical and digital sales are taking place right now as businesses begin to understand the change.
The below graphic(s) identifies the types, characteristics and windows of time the swarms take. Please @me with thoughts and or further insights.

